🏡 Minneapolis Real Estate Market Update – July 2025

July 17, 2025July 17, 2025 MaryLeave a comment

More Homes. Less Pressure. But Still a Seller’s Market?

If you’ve been watching the Minneapolis housing market over the past few years, you might be wondering: is this finally the shift we’ve been waiting for? In short — kind of!

Here’s what I’m seeing on the ground (and in the numbers) right now as of July 2025.

📈 Inventory Is Rising — and That Matters

We’ve seen a 31% increase in listings since the start of the year, and there are now about 7,300 active listings in the 7-county Twin Cities metro. That’s nearly 1,000 more homes than this time last year.

More homes on the market means more choices — and a little less panic — for buyers.

Almost every county is now over 2 months of housing supply:

Anoka and Ramsey Counties are still under 2 months.
Carver County is leading the pack at nearly 3 months.

📊 Quick Inventory Refresher:

0–5 months = Seller’s market
5–6 months = Balanced market
6+ months = Buyer’s market

So yes, we’re still in a seller’s market technically… but emotionally, it feels like a big relief for buyers compared to the frenzied pace of the past few years.

🧭 Buyer Experience: More Room to Breathe

If you’re coming from out of state — especially places where homes are lingering on the market or negotiation cycles are long — the Twin Cities might feel strange.

We still see multiple offers. Especially for homes that are:

Closer to the city
Priced right
In “1 out of 10” condition (mint and move-in ready)

Those homes? They’re flying. Still.
But listings that need a little TLC, staging, or smart pricing? Buyers are negotiating, and sellers are making concessions.

💡 What Accepted Offers Are Looking Like Right Now

The transaction coordination team I use (Home Free TC) provided a quick market snapshot based on 47 accepted offers between July 1–11, 2025. It’s a small sample, but all from busy, high-volume agents:

15% of buyers waived inspections (that’s way down from the last few years)
21% were cash offers, 70% conventional financing
Median sale-to-list price: 100%
28% of offers included seller-paid closing costs
Only 4% used escalation clauses, and just 8% included appraisal gap coverage
Home warranties included in 11% of deals
Cancellation rate: 2%

Takeaway? The market is calmer. Strategic. Thoughtful. But good homes still move fast.

🏠 How Property Types Are Trending

🔹 Single-Family Homes:

Median price: $415,000
YOY increase: +3.8%
Median days on market: 14 (including inspection!)
Most homes go under contract within the first week.

🔹 New Construction:

Median price: $595,000
YOY increase: +4.9%
There’s more supply than demand here, which means more negotiating power for buyers. A great opportunity right now.

🔹 Condos:

Median price: Just over $200K
Flat pricing, and days on market are increasing.
Supply > demand = slower sales.

🔹 Townhomes:

Median price: $310,000
Median days on market: 30
Townhome prices are holding steady, but longer market times are giving buyers a bit more wiggle room.

💬 So… Is It a Buyer’s Market Yet?

Not quite — but we’re headed in that direction, and it feels a whole lot better for buyers than it did even a year ago.

If you’re thinking about buying, there are real opportunities right now.
If you’re selling, presentation and pricing matter more than ever — but you still hold strong ground.

🤝 Want Help Navigating This Market?

Whether you’re relocating, downsizing, upsizing, or just exploring options — I’m here to help. I’ve worked with clients all across the country and love helping people figure out whether Minnesota is their next home.

📩 Feel free to reach out — mschumann@kw.com or call / text 773-791-2015

Thanks for reading!
– Mary Schumann

The MINNEAPOLIS SPRING HOUSING MARKET is LIT 🔥

February 26, 2025February 26, 2025 MaryLeave a comment

I just did a video that gives real life examples of what is happening in the 7 county metro Twin Cities housing market right now and wanted to share it with you. Things have changed QUICKLY!

Let me know if you have questions about the market or how to WIN in this market. The pandemic was a good boot camp for agents that made it through!

Home Buying · Home equity · home selling · market updates · Uncategorized

Opportunities for buyers? Twin Cities real estate market update!

December 3, 2023December 3, 2023 MaryLeave a comment

What is happening in the Minneapolis area real estate market? I’ve been following several metrics over the past few years and there are a few that really stand out to me as indicative of how the market is doing, not just PRICE but what kinds of terms are included in winning offers and I will let you know which terms are revealing the current state of the market here.

I’m keeping my finger on the pulse of what is happening in the Twin Cities metro real estate market so you can be an informed buyer or seller.

The number one question that most people have about homes is whether or not prices are falling? I keep hearing this and for the purposes of this discussion I’m just going to look at the 7 county metro around Minneapolis and St. Paul and we can check the different housing types. The first is the most popular -SINGLE FAMILY HOMES. When I was digging into data for this update I decided to look at it over the past year and the past 10 years so that I can show you trend lines for both. I’m also going to differentiate by new construction and previously owned because new construction is at a vastly different price point as a whole.

Prices & time on market for existing homes

Metrics that I didn’t talk about in the video are how long houses are staying on the market these days. I do see houses sitting for quite a long time in certain areas and price points but the official numbers are charted here. The graph gives the impression of a big increase in time, but real numbers equate to only 3 more days.

New Construction

I’ll talk about pricing but for new construction I see a lot of opportunity for buyers here! Why? Builders have a lot of inventory right now. They have completed homes as well as homes that are underway with completion dates coming up. They need to get these homes off their books so they can continue to build and the interest rates have slowed things down for everyone, but the big builders are offering rate buy downs for buyers right now along with all kinds of other incentives, from appliance packages to closing costs.

Things to consider are that these homes are mainly being built in 3rd ring suburbs and exurbs so if proximity to the city is important you’re less likely to be able to get a new build – or at least one with a big builder that can offer these incentives. There are custom builds on lots here and there in the city.

You’ll see a slight dip in median price ($5000) from the beginning of the year. I have read in multiple sources that they estimate that it would take 10 years of building for the builders to catch up to demand for homes due to the after effects of the housing recession in 2008. We are still that far behind. New construction is showing over 6 months worth of supply but take this with a grain of salt because builders list homes that are TO BE BUILT – so they aren’t existing yet – along with those that they have ready for a buyer to move into.

New construction supply shows a buyers market! I haven’t seen this kind of number in a VERY long time. Ever?

Things are different when you look at previously owned homes. It is still a sellers market, although not the insane sellers market of a year or 2 ago. Homes still get multiple offers, the market is still moving just not at a runaway pace. Previously owned single family homes are sitting at about 1.3 months supply. So you can see the difference here.

WHY is it a seller’s market for existing homes and a buyer’s market for new constructions?

What leads to this? 80% of people with a mortgage on their home are paying less than 5% interest, 50% of them have a rate at less than 4%, they need a big incentive to list their homes and buy a different home with a mortgage at a higher rate. This really is one of those cases where as usual, of you have a good budget you are at an advantage because you can buy new construction and take advantage of the market and the incentives whereas those 2 things don’t exist as much for existing homes, prices are lower as a median but supply is lower too and you don’t get the builder buy downs. But you also don’t have to pay for a deck or the multitude of finishing touches that need to be added to new construction.

Price reductions

Housing inventory is dropping now as we get into the winter and holiday time, but the other thing that is slowing is PRICE REDUCTIONS – the percentage of them is reduced by about half of what it was 1.5 to 2 months ago, from 14% of listings to about 7%. Maybe agents and sellers are pricing correctly now, or maybe they understand that they may spend more than 5 minutes on the market?

Bank owned homes

Another statistic of note are the number of distressed or bank owned properties. We still have fewer than 100 listed out of about 6200 active listings. Less than 1.5%, other markets in the US are not faring as well. People here are still meeting their mortgage payments.

Offer terms that show a big shift

OK – a couple of other things that really stand out to me – the first is that sellers are contributing to buyers closing costs 43% of the time! that’s the highest percentage I can remember seeing. People including appraisal gap language on there offers has almost disappeared (although escalation clauses are still being included) but this makes sense when you see that most sellers are now seeing themselves getting about 99-100% of asking – this number was at 105% or more for a while and that was just crazy. Another option if you are in the previously owned category of home, if you find one you like and it has a motivated seller you could ask for them to do the rate buy down for you. Interest rates have been dipping back down, but it’s doubtful that they will ever get as low as they were during the pandemic. This will likely spur some more buyer activity as we head into spring.

Data on Condos and Townhomes

If you have questions about the real estate market in the Twin Cities area – city or suburbs! – reach out! I love to talk to people that meet me YouTube or the Blog!
Mary

Living in Minneapolis · market updates

Twin Cities housing market update – June & a bit o’ July 2021

July 14, 2021July 14, 2021 MaryLeave a comment

Is the feeding frenzy OVER?!? Not quite, but it seems to be a LOT better? Of course that is relative! and in this case I mean relative to the crazy times we were in in March – May!

In this video and blog post I’m giving you the current conditions of the market for the 7 county Twin Cities area broken down by property type and then I’ll go into a bit about what we see as far as what terms are resulting in accepted offers right now. These are the encouraging signs I’ve been looking for!

This year has definitely been one for the books! It has been the strongest sellers market that anyone I know can remember – and this is AMAZING if you have a home to SELL! Prices are higher than ever and you can dictate the terms for the MOST part – HOWEVER! Buyers! Do not despair! Things ARE getting easier for you now (at least compared to a couple of months ago when it was an all out SCRUM!)

A note about these graphs – I chose to make them show monthly ups and downs without the smoothing effect that softens the seasonal aspects, so keep that in mind as you look at the dips and heights. the market changes constantly, and this shows those changes month to month.

The median SFH price in the Twin Cities sits at $380,000 – that is UP from $326,100 at the beginning of this year.

Median Price TC Metro Single family Homes

You’ll often hear me talk about the “absorption rate” or the # of months supply of housing available to be sold if no other homes were to go on the market. For context it is considered a BALANCED market if there is 5-6 months of supply. We have been UNDER 1 month for different segments of the market for much of this year, mainly anything under about about $600K. Right now we are STILL at .8 months for anything under about $400k. For single family homes in general we are at a little over 1 month’s supply of homes.

Homes are only on the market for FIVE DAYS!!! a year and a half ago it was FOURTY FIVE! And only 6 months ago around 20! So still homes are still flying off the market.

Let’s look at the 2 softer spots – Townhomes and Condos.

The median price for a townhome is consistent with the rest of the market rise in prices and is at $271,000 from $240,000 in January.

For Townhomes there is a little uptick in supply and we have a full month available right now.

Condos! This is the place if you’re looking for any kind of deal! Sellers are negotiating! You can get an INSPECTION! 🙂
Condo prices are at $171,000 for a median price, up a similar amount from the beginning of the year as other property types are.

The supply of condos is where the opportunity comes in – Still a sellers market but for people selling condos it can feel like a whole different world. There are 2.5 months worth of inventory available. This has dropped a small amount since January but has been relatively flat this year overall.

Now let’s look at what kinds of offers are being accepted!

This is a valuable bit of information that the Minnesota Transaction Coordinators gives us on a regular basis and I’ll add my 2 cents to about what I am seeing (although as a much smaller segment of the market)

Offer Acceptance Rate: 42%

Inspections Waived: 31% – we haven’t been in the 30% range since March

My 2 cents: the last 6 contracts (this past month or so) that I have either written or accepted have had inspections included and accepted. that’s 100% of my sales in the past several weeks. I’ve been thrilled for my buyers and I am 100% fine with it for my seller as well because I feel like inspections protect EVERYONE, the buyer, the seller and ME.

Pre-market Sales that happen without hitting the MLS : 2.8%. This is DOWN from earlier this year! It was over 5% for quite a while – maybe due to pandemic fears about having too many people in a home?

Average Purchase to List Price: 102.7% – about the lowest it’s been since the spring market!

Still great for sellers, but also good news for buyers! And a lesson to sellers about pricing appropriately. Things change, you want to not have YOUR home sit because it’s been priced too high as well as understanding that unless you have something really special that the insane bidding wars may be over for now.

I have talked to many agents saying that showings are down from earlier this spring when agents were setting overlapping showings and having the home packed full of people for 12 hours per day. Now there are private showings again. There may be open spaces in the calendar. More than one offer may come in but they aren’t seeing the literal STACKS of offers that they were before.

Financing Types:

Cash 11.5%, which is higher than it’s been

Conventional 68.5%, – a little lower than its been

FHA 8.5%, higher!

VA 3%, Still a rough spot! People that use VA are often choosing it because it is a no downpayment loan, which means they are short on cash. If you can’t make appraisal gap guarantees, or add other sweeteners that need ready cash available this can be a VERY tough time to buy.

USDA 8.5% (this is a high number and I wonder if it is a function of the sample size that they had – if they had 2 transactions it could hit this #). These loans are generally for rural buyers.

Seller Paid Closing Costs: are at 12%

Home Warranties: 5.7% – I was able to negotiate this recently as well!

Contingent Upon the Sale of the Buyer’s Property: 8.5% (this seems HIGH to me! I’m still cautious about having this particular contingency, it can be a real weak spot in an offer if you have any competition at all. I would avoid this at all costs or you may have to make it an offer they can’t refuse due to price, or magically find a seller that wants to stay a little longer.

And that is ALL for this week. I’ll be back next week with some more neighborhood profiles. I’ve been AWOL due to this insane market and actually getting a vacation for the first time in YEARS. No regrets. 😉

See you then!

Home Buying · home selling · Uncategorized

I had other plans for this week’s post…

February 26, 2021February 27, 2021 Mary1 Comment

Next week I’ll give you another neighborhood profile – I’m excited about my small town series, and I have one I love and plan to talk about, but this week I’m going to beat a dead horse a bit and talk some more about what is happening in the real estate market in the Twin Cities metro area. I don’t usually do “market update” posts or videos on my YouTube channel, but the fact of the matter is that right now I’m actively helping 6 buyers try to navigate this market and I want to share a bit of how we look at the market and measure it and then also show you what that means for the Twin Cities right now.

I feel like anecdotal evidence about how many offers a listing gets, how fast something sells or how far over list price the offers are is shocking at times or maybe sounds like a fish tale that we like to tell – “the big one that got away” kind of thing. Stories are great and interesting, but in this post I want to talk about DATA. Weee! Exciting!

Not exciting? Well, I disagree. I think this tells a very clear story and because it looks at the entire market and then breaks it down by price it might tell the story in a way that makes sense in a different way to more people. This is the WHY behind the HOW that I’ve talked about before when I’ve done videos/posts about making the best offer.

How DATA tells you if it is a buyer or a seller’s market: Meet the “Absorption Rate”

These are my words, not something from a real estate dictionary somewhere.

When we look at a market and try to decide who it favors we look at the number of active listings available in a 30 day period and then look at the sales. It’s a ratio. But the way that I think is easiest to visualize this ratio is as the “absorption rate”. This rate shows us how long it would take for ALL houses actively listed to be sold if NO OTHER homes were put on the market during that time.

We are measuring time in months for this exercise, and the magic number of months where REALTORS feel that the market is in balance is 5 (not set in stone, some argue for 6 months etc). This means that when it would take 5 months for every home to be sold should no other homes be listed, the market does not favor either a buyer OR a seller.

Any number smaller than 5 indicates a sellers market. The smaller the number the more it favors sellers. This works in the converse as well, the LARGER the number over 5 the more the market favors buyers.

What is the Twin Cities absorption rate today?

Emphasis on TODAY because this rate changes seasonally and with market forces – I’ll talk a bit about what those are too.

The current absorption rate for the Twin Cities metro is 0.86. LESS than one month’s supply of homes. Very much in the favor of the seller. And it is not getting better – in the past 6 weeks the rate has consistently decreased from 1.32 the first week of January to where we are today.

The last half of 2020 was a crazy market, due to Covid hitting in spring and the uncertainty that brought with it there was a lull in what would typically be the busy spring market, but once everyone got their bearings it was off to the races and it never really slowed, even during the holidays. Add extremely low interest rates into the mix (under 3% for a pretty extended stretch), and a bubble of Gen Y aging into home ownership and bumping up what was already high demand from buyers, and things have just not cooled at all. All of this to say we sold a LOT of homes last year and possibly ate into what would have been inventory for this year. January 2021 started with 38% FEWER listings than we had in January 2020.

Supply continues to drop, particularly in the under $300K price range where new listings are down 15% YTD. The over all market YTD has 6.9% fewer listings. If you’ve taken any economics classes at all you’ll know that price is a function of supply and demand. We have low supply and high demand and that is pushing prices higher as people bid against each other for homes.

Absorption rate by price point

The best way to show this is to give you a screen shot of the table that we looked at in our data meeting this week. I love this table because it breaks it out by general price points and you can see the trend over the past 9-10 months for each. You’ll notice that higher price points have slightly looser markets because there are fewer buyers that can manage those budgets. I do think that the $500-$1M may need to be broken up a bit because at $500K there is still a quite a large bubble of buyers that are able to enter the market and compete for homes at that price. There may be a break closer to the mid $600’s where the ratio gets closer to 1.4, but I think $500 is still quite competitive.

credit to Tim Sipprell who pulled this together for our office

So, that is the data geek light version of the market at this point in time in the Twin Cities. An opportunity again for me to encourage you to be as prepared as you possibly can be before you enter the fray. You really need to be in the best position possible if you want to land at the top of the heap when you get into this market.

Let me know if you have questions… 🙂