As we approach the end of the year in Minnesota, the rhythm of life shifts. The days get shorter, the temps get colder, and people settle into the cozy rituals that make winter here feel special. And right on schedule, the real estate market slows down, too.
But slowing down doesn’t mean declining. In fact, the Minneapolis–St. Paul market remains one of the strongest and most stable in the country, especially when you focus on the 7-county metro, which is where most buyers want to be.
Here’s what’s happening right now — and what it means for buyers and sellers heading into 2026.
Year-Over-Year Appreciation: Slow, Steady, Healthy
For previously owned single-family homes, the year-over-year appreciation rate is 4.5%.
This is exactly where we want to be — growing, but not overheated.
Some markets around the country are seeing price declines.
We are not.
Home prices here continue to hold their value, even when individual listings make price adjustments.
A Spotty, Discerning Market
The 2025 market is unusual — but honestly, when hasn’t it been?
Here’s the pattern we’re seeing:
- Homes at or below the median price point often sell quickly and may receive multiple offers.
- Higher-priced homes have a smaller buyer pool and may sit longer.
Across all price points, buyers are becoming more selective.
They want move-in ready. They want value. They want fewer reasons to hesitate.
For sellers, this means preparation matters more than ever.
Removing objections before buyers walk in the door is critical.
Current Prices and Inventory Levels
Previously Owned Single-Family Homes (7-County Metro)
- Median price: $418,000
- Average price: ~$508,000
- Months supply: 1.7
This number has not budged in more than a year.
Anything under 5 months of supply is considered a seller’s market, and we are firmly in that territory.
New Construction
- Median price: $600,000
- Average price: ~$713,000
- YOY appreciation: 6%
- Months supply: ~6 months
New construction is a balanced market, offering buyers an abundance of choice—but typically with trade-offs, including larger homes on smaller lots and landscaping that won’t feel mature for years.
Why Winter Is One of the Best Times to Buy
If you’re planning to buy at all, winter often provides the strongest buyer advantages:
- More motivated sellers
- Less competition
- More negotiation power
- More time to make decisions
- Less pressure to waive protections
You can often secure a lower price in November or December than you can in the spring, when additional buyers flood the market.
Looking Ahead: Predictions for 2026
The Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors predicts a 16% increase in home sales next year, assuming the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates as the economy cools.
If interest rates drop to around 6% or below, demand could skyrocket.
That sounds great for affordability — but keep in mind that lower rates also mean more competition. Prices and bidding activity typically rise when buyer demand returns in force.
And remember:
Minnesota’s spring market starts in January.
Every year, without fail.
If you’re hoping to avoid competition, winter may be your moment.
Final Thoughts
Whether you’re buying or selling, strategy is everything.
- Buyers: Winter gives you leverage and options.
- Sellers: Patience is key in slower segments, but demand always returns with the new year.
The Twin Cities continues to offer stable appreciation, strong demand, and a market that behaves differently from many coastal or high-volatility areas.
And if you’re relocating here — welcome. It’s a great place to be, even in the winter.
If you want personalized advice or want to start a conversation about buying or selling in 2026, I’m here to help!
Send me a message at mschumann@kw.com
